Chapter 27Rolling Forecast, Scenario Planning, and Forecast Governance

Refreshing the hotel outlook without changing the approved budget baseline

Chapters 1–3 established governance and Chapters 4–23 retained driver-specific forecast triggers. This chapter supplies the missing integrated calculation and operating calendar. It brings rooms, F&B, events, other revenue, labour, departmental and support cost, fees, owner charges, capex, cash and the balance sheet into one version-controlled forecast.

Learning outcomes

• Distinguish approved budget, latest estimate, actual plus forecast, rolling forecast, scenario and 13-week cash.
• Operate a monthly forecast calendar with source locks, department ownership, GM challenge and version approval.
• Import chapter handoffs and refresh rooms, revenue, labour, cost, fees, cash and balance sheet from causal drivers.
• Build budget-to-forecast and forecast-to-forecast bridges.
• Measure accuracy and bias and connect named scenarios to triggers and action.

1. Budget and forecast answer different questions

The approved budget is the locked commitment and comparison baseline. The latest estimate is management’s current expected full-year result. Actual plus forecast combines closed months with the remaining outlook. A rolling forecast maintains a constant forward horizon beyond year-end. A scenario tests a named alternative, while the 13-week cash forecast controls near-term liquidity.

Forecasting must not erase accountability by rewriting the budget. Every version carries purpose, horizon, cut-off, owner, approval status and source lock. The bridge explains movement from the approved baseline and from the prior forecast.